With 13 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Gujarat Titans (GT) and Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) are virtually assured of a top-four finish, while Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) would need a catastrophic collapse to miss out. Punjab Kings (PBKS) also hold a strong position. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have better-than-even odds of finishing among the top four, even if tied. Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) have extremely slim chances. With 8,192 possible result combinations remaining, nothing is certain for any of the eight teams still in the race.
Probabilities for Each Team
Gujarat Titans (GT)
GT have a 99.7% chance of finishing within the top four in terms of points (including ties). Their chances of ending up in first or second place, singly or jointly, stand at an impressive 82.6%.
Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB)
After their win on Wednesday, RCB have a 99% chance of finishing among the top four by points and a 77.6% chance of being among the top two.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH)
SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points are 77%, with a 31.4% chance of being among the top two.
Punjab Kings (PBKS)
PBKS have a 63.6% chance of ending up among the top four on points, but only a 22.2% chance of finishing among the top two.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK)
At 53.2%, CSK have a better-than-even chance of getting into the top four, but only a 19% chance of ending up among the top two.
Rajasthan Royals (RR)
RR have a slightly lower 53% chance of ending up among the top four and only a 15.3% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR)
KKR’s already slim chances have shrunk to a mere 2.6% after Wednesday’s loss. They can no longer even tie for one of the top two slots.
Delhi Capitals (DC)
DC’s playoff hopes remain at a measly 2.7%. At best, they can finish third, tied with anywhere between two and three other teams.
How the Probabilities Are Calculated
With 13 games remaining, there are 8,192 possible combinations of results. For each team, we analyzed how many of these combinations result in them being among the top four, either singly or tied. Similarly, we examined how many combinations put each team in the top two. For instance, DC finish in the top four in just 220 of the possible combinations, translating to a mere 2.7% chance — and even that is jointly, not singly.
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