While the winter season should technically still be prevailing across Kerala, residents are experiencing an unexpected and noticeable rise in daytime temperatures. In many parts of the state, the mercury has climbed 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above typical levels for this time of year, with minimum temperatures stubbornly hovering around 25 to 26 degrees Celsius.
IMD Forecasts Persistent Dry Conditions
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that dry weather is likely to prevail across Kerala throughout the coming week. This prediction comes as the region grapples with warmer-than-usual conditions that defy seasonal norms.
Temperature Anomalies Across Districts
According to 24-hour temperature data recorded on Tuesday morning, minimum temperatures were significantly above normal in several key districts. Kozhikode and Palakkad recorded readings well above average, while Kannur, Malappuram, Ernakulam, Thiruvananthapuram, and Thrissur also experienced above-normal minimum temperatures.
The lowest minimum temperature was recorded in Punalur at 21.5 degrees Celsius, but this appears to be an exception rather than the rule. Several locations across Kerala documented temperatures ranging from 3 to 5 degrees above their seasonal averages.
Specific District Readings
Kottayam recorded a maximum temperature of 36 degrees Celsius, which represents a 2.6-degree increase above normal. Similarly, Kozhikode experienced a 2.1-degree rise from its typical maximum, reaching 35.2 degrees Celsius.
In contrast, Palakkad was relatively cooler than many other areas at 30.4 degrees Celsius, with maximum temperatures actually dipping by 2.6 degrees compared to normal levels.
Meteorological Context and Seasonal Shifts
The IMD notes that the northeast monsoon concluded around January 15th, after which the winter season for the southern peninsula should have commenced. However, both daytime and nighttime temperatures have been climbing steadily over recent days, creating unseasonably warm conditions.
Meteorological observations indicate that a feeble north-south trough over the southeast Arabian Sea, located off the Kerala coast at approximately 0.9 kilometers above mean sea level, has become less marked. Light to moderate easterly and northeasterly winds have been prevailing over Kerala in the lower tropospheric levels.
Fishermen Advisory
In related weather developments, fishermen have been advised to avoid venturing into the Bay of Bengal, along and off the coasts of south Tamil Nadu and west Sri Lanka, as well as over the Gulf of Mannar and adjoining Comorin area until Thursday.
Long-Term Climate Concerns
Private weather forecaster Skymet has raised concerns about potential climate developments later this year. The organization indicates there are signs that drought-bearing El Niño conditions may develop by July 2024.
If this occurs, it could significantly impact the quantum of rainfall India receives between June and September. The El Niño phenomenon is notorious for bringing drought conditions and prolonged dry spells across Asia, with India being particularly vulnerable to its effects.
This combination of immediate unseasonal warming and potential long-term drought concerns creates a complex weather scenario for Kerala as the state navigates what should be its winter season.
