Maharashtra Set for Warmer February with Elevated Temperatures Across State
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its monthly outlook for February, indicating that Maharashtra is likely to experience warmer-than-normal conditions throughout the month. Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to remain above average across most parts of the state, signaling a milder end to the winter season.
Temperature Projections and Regional Variations
According to IMD's probability forecast, there is a higher likelihood of above-normal minimum temperatures across large parts of Vidarbha, Marathwada, north Maharashtra, and interior western Maharashtra. This pattern suggests fewer cold nights and a weaker winter chill than typically experienced during this period.
Maximum temperatures are also projected to remain above normal across most districts, with central and eastern Maharashtra particularly affected. The forecast shows little indication of below-normal daytime temperatures anywhere in the state, pointing to consistently warmer conditions.
Reduced Cold Wave Activity Expected
In line with the warming trend, the cold wave outlook for February indicates a negative anomaly across Maharashtra. The state is likely to experience fewer cold wave days than normal, with most regions seeing either a reduction in cold wave days or no significant cold wave activity at all.
This reduction in cold wave activity contributes to the overall warmer conditions expected throughout the month, affecting everything from agricultural patterns to daily life across Maharashtra's diverse regions.
Climate Drivers Behind the Warming Trend
IMD officials have identified several large-scale climate factors influencing the February outlook. La Niña conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific, characterized by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific regions. Atmospheric conditions continue to support this La Niña phase, though forecasts indicate a likely transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during the February-March-April period.
While La Niña typically favors cooler-than-normal winter conditions over parts of India, the shift toward ENSO-neutral conditions can weaken this cooling influence. Meteorologists suggest this weakening, combined with regional circulation patterns, is contributing to the warmer February outlook for Maharashtra.
Additional Weather Factors at Play
Several other meteorological factors are influencing Maharashtra's February weather:
- Reduced Western Disturbances: Fewer or weaker western disturbances toward winter's end limit the southward movement of cold air, reducing chances of significant cooling over Maharashtra
- Persistent Easterly Winds: Common in January and early February, these winds suppress nighttime cooling and keep minimum temperatures elevated, particularly over interior regions
- Regional Circulation Patterns: The combined impact of fewer cold air intrusions from the north and persistent easterly winds creates conditions favorable for warmer temperatures
An IMD official explained that the combination of these factors—fewer cold air intrusions from the north, persistent easterly winds, and the gradual weakening of La Niña—is likely to result in a milder end to winter across Maharashtra. However, isolated cool mornings remain possible in parts of Vidarbha and north Maharashtra.
Implications for Maharashtra Residents
The warmer February forecast has several implications for residents across Maharashtra:
- Reduced heating requirements for homes and businesses during typically cold February nights
- Potential impacts on winter crops that depend on specific temperature ranges
- Altered water consumption patterns as evaporation rates may increase with warmer temperatures
- Changes in energy demand as heating needs decrease while cooling requirements might emerge earlier than usual
While the forecast points to generally warmer conditions, meteorologists emphasize that weather patterns can show variability, and residents should stay updated with local IMD forecasts for specific regional conditions.
