For thousands of years, prophets and thinkers have predicted the imminent collapse of civilisation. From an ancient Assyrian writer lamenting the lost morals of youth nearly 4,800 years ago to modern-day pastors setting firm dates, the end of the world has been a constant theme. However, one prediction stands apart, not for its spiritual origin, but for its foundation in cold, hard science. This forecast, published in a respected journal, pointed to a specific doomsday: Friday, November 13, 2026.
The Mathematical Doomsday Prophecy
In November 1960, the prestigious journal Science published a groundbreaking paper by three researchers from the University of Illinois: Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot. Their work was not based on sermons or visions, but on mathematical modelling of population growth trends in Western society. Their conclusion was stark and unsettling. They argued that advances in medicine and technology were causing the human population to grow at an accelerating, unsustainable pace.
The core of their prediction was that the global population would “tend towards infinity” around the year 2026. In simpler terms, they believed the growth would spiral so rapidly that food and resource production could never catch up, leading to a catastrophic collapse. When they published their paper, the world's population was approximately three billion. Today, as we approach 2026, United Nations estimates place that number at over eight billion, with a decline not expected until around 2080.
Overpopulation: The Quiet Apocalypse
Unlike fears of asteroids or nuclear war, the threat identified by Foerster, Mora, and Amiot was mundane yet inescapable: overpopulation. Their ideas echoed the 1798 warnings of British economist Thomas Malthus, who famously stated that famine was nature's ultimate check on a population that outgrows its food supply.
Von Foerster described this mathematical breaking point with chilling clarity. He referred to the calculated date as ‘doomsday’ or ‘t0’, stating, “Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death.” The prediction suggested a future where humanity, in its cleverness, would ultimately annihilate itself through its own unchecked expansion.
Why the Prediction Failed (And Why Some Still Prepare)
So far, the worst-case scenario has not materialised. The global population has indeed exploded, but a series of innovations—the Green Revolution, advanced fertilisers, improved irrigation, and genetic crop engineering—have allowed food production to keep remarkable pace. The Malthusian famines have been repeatedly delayed by human ingenuity.
Yet, the spectre of a future resource crisis clearly lingers, especially among the world's wealthiest. Reports from Forbes and other outlets highlight a trend of billionaires investing in remote, defensible properties that resemble apocalyptic bunkers. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has spent $187 million on a 1,600-acre Hawaiian estate, reportedly building an underground bunker with independent supplies. Amazon's Jeff Bezos and Oracle's Larry Ellison have made similar multi-million dollar investments in secluded island properties in Florida and Hawaii, respectively.
These moves reflect a familiar narrative from doomsday fiction, where scarcity leads to societal breakdown. While the precise mathematical doomsday of 2026 may pass without event, the underlying concern about balancing human growth with planetary limits remains one of the most critical challenges of our century. The prediction serves as a powerful reminder of the need for sustainable innovation and global cooperation.
