US Jobless Benefits See Significant Increase
The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits witnessed a substantial surge between mid-September and mid-October, according to government data released on Tuesday. This development points toward an elevated unemployment rate for October, as businesses appear hesitant to hire amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
The Labor Department disclosed that continuing claims, which represent people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, increased by 10,000 to reach a seasonally adjusted 1.957 million during the week ended October 18. This marks a significant jump from the 1.916 million recorded in the week ended September 13.
Technical Glitch and Data Delay
A spokesperson from the Labor Department acknowledged a technical issue that led to the early posting of partial data. "This is being corrected and the complete series will be available by close of business on Nov. 20, 2025," the spokesperson confirmed in response to a Reuters query.
The data release comes after a prolonged gap in official weekly claims data publication, caused by the recently concluded 43-day government shutdown. The White House has already indicated that the unemployment rate for October will likely not be published, as the historic shutdown prevented the collection of crucial household data.
Separately, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it would publish September's producer price report next Tuesday, with import and export price data scheduled for release on December 3.
Labor Market Implications
The substantial increase in continuing claims between the September and October survey periods strongly suggests a high unemployment rate for October. This pattern aligns with reports of sluggish hiring across various sectors.
Supporting this assessment, a report from ADP revealed that private employers eliminated an average of 2,500 jobs per week during the four weeks ending November 1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish the delayed September employment report on Thursday, with the unemployment rate having been near a four-year high of 4.3% in August.
However, economists found some reassurance in the fact that first-time applications for benefits remained unchanged between the September and October nonfarm payrolls survey period. "That means there is no confirmation in this report of widely circulating theories that layoffs stepped up during the government shutdown," noted Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
Weinberg added that "This should be reassuring to markets, and it should reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut in December," a sentiment echoed by Federal Reserve officials who have shown reluctance toward lowering rates again next month.
Housing Market Struggles Continue
The labor market's weakness and associated concerns about household finances continue to negatively impact the housing sector. Additional data revealed that homebuilder sentiment remained subdued in November for the 19th consecutive month.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index showed a marginal improvement, ticking up one point to 38 this month, slightly above economist forecasts that predicted it would remain unchanged at 37.
"Still relatively high mortgage rates, a weak labor market, and elevated home prices all suggest that a big run-up in new home sales is unlikely in the near term," explained Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Allen projected that "A meaningful turnaround in the housing market likely will have to wait until mid-2026, when we expect further falls in mortgage rates to be paired with stronger growth and a gradual improvement in the jobs market."
The survey's detailed components showed mixed results: the measure of current sales conditions increased two points to 41, while the gauge of future sales fell three points to 51. The measure of prospective buyer traffic gained one point to reach 26.
Concerning trends emerged as the share of builders reporting price cuts increased to 41%, the highest level since May 2020. While the average price reduction held steady at 6%, the percentage of builders using incentives remained at 65%, consistent since September.
"More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence," observed NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, highlighting the ongoing challenges in the housing market.
