Stock Market Live Updates: Muted Opening Expected as Geopolitical Tensions Persist
Indian equity markets are poised for a subdued start on Thursday, with early indicators pointing to further weakness. The GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX was trading 163 points lower at 24,204.50, a decline of 0.67 percent, signaling a potential gap-down opening for Dalal Street. This comes after the Nifty50 slipped below the 24,500 mark to close at 24,378 on Wednesday, ending a three-session rally. Market participants remain vigilant, with near-term movements likely influenced by developments in the US-Iran conflict and the continuing US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
RBI Highlights Growth Risks from Middle East Crisis
Minutes from the April meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reveal that members were acutely focused on potential risks to economic growth stemming from the West Asia conflict. Despite expressing confidence in India's robust macroeconomic fundamentals, the committee unanimously decided to keep interest rates unchanged. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasized emerging challenges, noting that supply chain disruptions could pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. He warned that prolonged conflict could complicate central banks' efforts to control inflation while minimizing growth sacrifices, but affirmed the economy's resilience, stating it is on stronger footing than ever to withstand such shocks.
Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid Uncertainty
Crude oil prices rallied sharply on Thursday, climbing approximately 4 percent as uncertainty over the Iran-US ceasefire and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified. The surge followed Iran's indication that the key shipping route would remain closed while the US naval blockade continues, despite the extended truce. In early trade, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 4.06 percent to $96.73 per barrel, and Brent crude advanced 3.62 percent to $105.63. Oil markets have been on an upward trajectory since US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, with prices edging higher due to lingering doubts about a potential resumption of hostilities.
Asian Markets Hit Record Highs
In contrast to Indian markets, Asian indices showed strength. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index surged past the 60,000 mark for the first time, driven by strong buying in technology stocks, briefly touching 60,013.98. Similarly, South Korea's Kospi index opened at a record high of 6,535 points, reflecting positive sentiment in the region.
Brokerage Outlooks and Market Sentiment
Brokerage firm Bajaj Broking provided insights on key indices. For the Bank Nifty, the outlook remains positive above the 55,600-55,850 range, with expectations to gradually head towards 57,800 and 58,500 levels, though volatility is anticipated due to geopolitical tensions and crude oil price fluctuations. For the Nifty, the bias is positive above 23,850-24,100, with targets set at 24,700-24,800, supported by technical indicators like the 200-day EMA and retracement levels.
Institutional Activity and Currency Movements
On the institutional front, foreign portfolio investors sold equities worth Rs 2,078 crore on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors were also net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 1,078 crore. The Indian rupee weakened for a third consecutive session, reflecting subdued confidence in a resolution to the Iran conflict despite the US extending the ceasefire indefinitely. Meanwhile, US equities closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record levels, buoyed by the ceasefire extension and strong corporate earnings.
Overall, the Indian stock market faces a cautious environment, with geopolitical factors and oil price volatility playing pivotal roles in shaping investor sentiment in the near term.
