Stock market live updates today: The GIFT Nifty indicates a positive start for Sensex and Nifty. However, market experts suggest that investors are likely to remain cautious in the coming sessions due to a challenging macroeconomic environment. Persistent pressure on the rupee, Brent crude hovering above $100 per barrel, and elevated US bond yields are tightening financial conditions and keeping sentiment fragile.
Market Outlook
Analysts note that market sentiment continues to remain weak overall. The softness could persist as long as the Nifty trades below the crucial 23,800 mark. A decisive breakout above that level may trigger a sharp upward move.
Nifty Today: Bajaj Broking Outlook
The Nifty formed a bullish candle with a lower high and lower low, highlighting a strong pullback after a gap-down opening. It closed near the day's high. For the third time in the last six sessions, the index rebounded from near the key support area, indicating buying demand at lower levels.
Going ahead, the index is expected to extend the consolidation range of 23,200-23,900. Only a move above the recent breakdown area of 23,800-23,900 will signal a pause in the overall corrective trend. The index needs to start forming higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis. Key support is at 23,200-23,000 levels, which is the confluence of the lower band of the April 8 bullish gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601).
Bank Nifty Outlook by Bajaj Broking
The Bank Nifty also formed a bullish candle with a lower high and lower low. For the second time in the last three sessions, it rebounded from near the key support area, highlighting buying demand at lower levels. The index is likely to consolidate in the range of 52,700-54,700.
Holding above the key support area of 52,700-52,400 may lead to a pullback towards the recent breakdown area of 54,000 and 54,700. However, the index needs to form higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis and move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,700 to signal a pause in the recent downtrend. Key support is placed at 52,700-52,400 levels, which is the confluence of the lower band of the April 8 gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (49,955-57,456).
Sensex Round-Up from Wednesday
Benchmark equity index Sensex erased steep early losses to finish 117 points higher on Wednesday, supported largely by gains in Reliance Industries. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid elevated crude oil prices and continued weakness in the rupee.
The 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 117.54 points, or 0.16%, to close at 75,318.39. The index started on a weak note and dropped 671.44 points to an intraday low of 74,529.41. However, strong buying in oil and gas, financial, and automobile stocks during the final hour helped the benchmark recover sharply, rebounding nearly 877 points from the day's lowest level.
The NSE Nifty 50 also ended in positive territory, gaining 41 points, or 0.17%, to settle at 23,659. During the session, the benchmark moved within a wide range, touching a low of 23,397.30 and a high of 23,690.90.
Among Sensex constituents, Reliance Industries emerged as the biggest gainer, climbing 2.83%. Other stocks that supported the market included Bajaj Finserv, Trent, InterGlobe Aviation, Axis Bank, and Mahindra & Mahindra. On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, and Tata Steel figured among the top losers.
Sector Stocks Under Focus
Markets are likely to remain cautious in the near term amid an unfavorable macro backdrop marked by continued weakness in the rupee, elevated Brent crude prices near $111 per barrel, and high US bond yields. All these factors are tightening financial conditions and weighing on sentiment.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers after three consecutive buying sessions. The rise in domestic G-Sec yields to six-week highs could delay the lending rate relief that markets were anticipating. Indian equities ended largely flat on Wednesday amid weak global cues and macro concerns. The Nifty 50 closed marginally higher by 0.2%, while broader markets remained subdued with the Midcap100 gaining 0.5% and the Smallcap100 ending nearly flat.
Bond markets are pricing in re-accelerating inflation. The US 30-year yield crossed 5.1%, a 19-year high, while the 10-year moved above 4.5%. Rising US yields make dollar assets incrementally more attractive, pulling capital out of emerging markets, weakening the rupee, and pushing Indian G-Sec yields higher simultaneously. The rupee fell 20 paise to a fresh all-time low of 96.90 for the seventh consecutive session, with the 10-year G-Sec yield climbing to 7.1-7.13%. It is a self-reinforcing loop.
Separately, peak power demand hit an all-time high of 260.45 GW amid intensifying heat wave conditions, with temperatures expected to rise further. This is a clear positive read-through for power utilities, AC manufacturers, and summer beverage names. Diplomatically, US Secretary of State Rubio's India visit (May 23-26) and the India-Italy "special strategic partnership" spanning defence, AI, clean energy, and IMEC provide a longer-runway thesis for defence and infrastructure plays, says Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Rupee Hits Another Low
The rupee extended its losing streak for a ninth straight trading session on Wednesday, slipping 16 paise to end at a new record closing low of 96.86 against the US dollar. The continued weakness came as rising global crude oil prices linked to the West Asia conflict intensified concerns around inflation.
In the interbank forex market, the domestic currency began the day at 96.89 against the dollar and weakened further to touch an all-time intraday low of 96.95. During the session, it recovered partially to hit a high of 96.65 before finally settling at its weakest-ever closing level of 96.86, down 16 paise from the previous close.
On Tuesday, the rupee had already witnessed a sharp decline of 50 paise to close at 96.70 per US dollar. According to Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Commodities Research at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the rupee came under pressure due to a strengthening US dollar and a sharp jump in US Treasury yields. Yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds climbed to their highest level in nearly two decades, while benchmark 10-year yields touched a 16-month peak. He said the surge in yields heightened inflation concerns and triggered a sell-off across global markets, pushing investors towards risk-averse assets.
Asian Equities Track Wall Street Gains
Asian equities tracked the overnight gains on Wall Street as hopes surrounding US-Iran negotiations reduced concerns over escalating tensions in West Asia. Lower crude prices and easing bond yields also supported sentiment, although Nvidia shares witnessed a muted reaction following its revenue guidance.
Wall Street indices ended more than 1% higher on Wednesday, recovering from a three-session decline. Gains in technology and semiconductor stocks improved investor confidence ahead of quarterly earnings from Nvidia.
Gold prices were largely unchanged on Thursday as fears linked to oil-led inflation and the possibility of higher global interest rates were balanced by optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
