India's strategic withdrawal from the Ayni Air Base in Tajikistan represents one of the most significant diplomatic setbacks in New Delhi's Central Asian policy. The decision, made over a decade ago, continues to haunt India's regional ambitions and has substantially diminished its leverage in a critical geopolitical space.
The Ayni Air Base Saga: What Really Happened
Located just outside Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe, Ayni Air Base was India's first and only military facility in Central Asia. Between 2002 and 2014, New Delhi invested approximately $70 million to upgrade the Soviet-era base, extending its runway to 3,200 meters and installing modern navigation and air traffic control systems.
The strategic importance of Ayni cannot be overstated. It provided India with unprecedented access to Afghanistan and positioned New Delhi as a key security partner in Central Asia. The base offered multiple advantages: monitoring terrorist movements, supporting humanitarian missions, and serving as a potential logistics hub for India's growing regional interests.
However, by 2014, India had effectively withdrawn from active military operations at Ayni. The decision stemmed from multiple factors, including Tajikistan's growing alignment with Russia and China, India's own bureaucratic hesitations, and failure to deploy combat aircraft consistently to the facility.
Strategic Consequences of Withdrawal
The abandonment of Ayni has had far-reaching implications for India's regional standing. China has rapidly filled the vacuum left by India's departure, strengthening its military and economic ties with Tajikistan through the Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, Russia maintains its traditional influence in the region, leaving India as a marginal player.
This strategic retreat has particularly impacted India's Afghanistan policy. Without Ayni as an operational base, New Delhi's ability to respond to the Taliban takeover in 2021 was severely constrained. The air base could have served as a crucial evacuation point and monitoring station during the chaotic withdrawal of Western forces.
The timing of India's exit proved especially unfortunate. Just as global powers were recalibrating their Central Asian strategies, India voluntarily surrendered its most significant military asset in the region. This has limited New Delhi's options in dealing with emerging security challenges, including cross-border terrorism and great power competition.
Lessons for Indian Foreign Policy
The Ayni experience offers crucial lessons for Indian diplomacy. First, strategic infrastructure requires sustained commitment. India's initial investment in upgrading the base demonstrated foresight, but the failure to maintain operational presence undermined the entire endeavor.
Second, the episode highlights the importance of balancing relationships with multiple regional powers. While India focused on bilateral engagement with Tajikistan, it underestimated how Russian and Chinese interests would ultimately shape Dushanbe's decisions.
Third, the withdrawal reflects a broader pattern of India's cautious military diplomacy. Unlike China's assertive base-building strategy, India has often hesitated to project power beyond its immediate neighborhood, even when opportunities present themselves.
Looking ahead, India must develop a more coherent Central Asia strategy that combines economic engagement with security partnerships. The International North-South Transport Corridor and connectivity projects through Chabahar Port offer potential avenues for renewed regional engagement, but these cannot fully compensate for the lost military leverage.
The Ayni story serves as a stark reminder that in geopolitics, strategic assets once abandoned are rarely recovered. As India aspires to greater global influence, learning from this experience becomes essential for future foreign policy successes.
