The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its forecast for July 2026, predicting below normal rainfall across the country following a subdued June. According to the IMD, the country as a whole is expected to receive less than the long-period average (LPA) for July.
Regional Variations in Rainfall
Despite the overall below normal trend, some areas are likely to see normal to above normal rainfall. These include parts of northwest India, northeast India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region. The IMD noted that these regions could experience beneficial precipitation, which may help alleviate dry conditions in some areas.
“Areas of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region is likely to receive normal to above rainfall,” the IMD stated in its forecast, as reported by Kalyan Ray on 30 June 2026.
Impact of Subdued June
June 2026 saw below normal rainfall, with the monsoon deficit raising concerns for agriculture and water resources. The IMD’s July forecast suggests that the monsoon may continue to underperform, potentially affecting kharif crop sowing and reservoir levels. Farmers and policymakers are advised to plan accordingly, with a focus on water conservation and drought-resistant crops.
Monsoon Performance So Far
The monsoon season typically runs from June to September, with July being a critical month for rainfall. The IMD’s forecast for July indicates a deviation from normal patterns, which could have implications for the overall seasonal rainfall. The department will continue to monitor and update its forecasts as the month progresses.
The IMD uses a combination of statistical and dynamical models to generate its monthly forecasts. The below normal prediction for July is based on global climate factors, including sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.
