Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections: Data Highlights Crucial Role of Allies in DMK vs AIADMK Contest
With the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections scheduled for April, major political contenders are intensifying their efforts to forge strategic alliances. The battle primarily pits the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) against the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), with data from the 2021 polls underscoring the pivotal role of coalition partners. In that election, DMK allies secured 26 of the coalition's 159 seats in the 234-member House, while AIADMK allies contributed only 9 of the opposition alliance's 75 seats.
Alliance Dynamics and Key Players
Alliance-building initiatives, spearheaded by DMK leader M K Stalin and AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami, are gaining momentum. A significant development is the emergence of actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as a formidable third front, which has so far resisted overtures from both major alliances. This adds complexity to an already crowded electoral landscape.
For the upcoming polls, coalitions have broadly taken shape. The AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now includes regional parties such as the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) faction led by Anbumani Ramadoss, the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) or TMC(M) under G K Vasan, and community-based outfits like Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK), Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK), Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), and Puthiya Tamilagam (PT). Notably, former AIADMK leader T T V Dhinakaran's Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) has rejoined the AIADMK-NDA fold.
On the other side, the DMK-led alliance aims to buck Tamil Nadu's historical anti-incumbency trend and secure consecutive terms—a feat last achieved by the AIADMK in 2016. Key allies include the Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) led by Dalit leader Thol Thirumavalavan, the Communist Party of India (CPI) and CPI(Marxist), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) of Kamal Haasan, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) under Vaiko, and Kongunadu Makkal Desia Katchi (KMDK).
Performance Analysis of AIADMK Allies
In the 2021 Assembly polls, the AIADMK-led alliance was ousted from power, with its tally dropping to 75 seats from 136 in 2016. Its only allies to win seats were the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 4 seats and the PMK with 5 seats. While these seat tallies appear modest, vote share data offers a more nuanced perspective. The AIADMK led the alliance with a 33.29% state-wide vote share, followed by the PMK at 3.8% and the BJP at 2.62%. In the seats they contested, the PMK secured a 37.61% vote share in 23 northern Tamil Nadu constituencies, and the BJP achieved 34.26% in 20 southern and western seats.
However, the PMK and BJP faced challenges, losing by average margins of 33,885 and 34,182 votes respectively in runner-up seats, well above the state-wide average victory margin of 22,871 votes. Other allies like IJK and PT performed poorly in 2021, forfeiting deposits in all contested seats with minimal vote shares, indicating their reliance on vote transfers from the AIADMK in the upcoming election.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections further highlighted struggles for AIADMK allies, with no parliamentary seats won and reduced vote shares. The AIADMK managed 23.27% in contested constituencies, while the BJP, AMMK, PMK, and TMC(M) saw declines from their 2021 performance.
Performance Analysis of DMK Allies
In contrast, the DMK-led alliance excelled in 2021, winning 159 seats, up from 98 in 2016. Key allies contributed significantly: the Congress won 18 of 25 seats with a 4.27% state-wide vote share, the VCK secured 4 of 6 seats (0.99% vote share), and the CPI and CPI(M) each won 2 of 6 seats (1.09% and 0.85% vote shares respectively). The DMK itself dominated with a 37.7% state-wide vote share and 46.45% in contested seats.
In seats lost, the Congress and VCK fell short by average margins of 25,871 and 24,448 votes, while the Left parties lost by 21,198 votes on average. The DMK, as runner-up in 55 seats, lost by an average margin of 16,487 votes. Notably, no DMK ally forfeited deposits, underscoring their electoral strength.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls reinforced this dominance, with the DMK-led alliance sweeping all 39 parliamentary seats. Constituents like the Congress, CPI, CPI(M), VCK, IUML, and MDMK achieved high vote shares in contested seats, demonstrating robust coalition performance.
Unaligned Parties and Future Implications
Beyond the major alliances, unaligned parties add unpredictability. The TVK's debut and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) led by Seeman remain significant, though NTK has struggled to win seats. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), now led by Premalatha, is undecided between alliances, while former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam (OPS) is being courted by the DMK but faces resistance from AIADMK leadership.
As the election nears, data-driven insights reveal that allies will be crucial in determining the outcome. With the DMK relying on a broad coalition and the AIADMK seeking to leverage regional partnerships, the performance of parties like VCK, PMK, and the emerging TVK could tip the scales in this high-stakes political battle.
