Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has made a significant prediction regarding the state's upcoming electoral landscape. He stated that the recent delimitation exercise has dramatically improved the prospects of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the 2026 state assembly elections, potentially enabling the coalition to cross the 100-seat mark.
Delimitation Reshapes Assam's Political Map
The Chief Minister made these remarks while speaking to journalists in Kamrup (Metro) district on Sunday. He explained that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are now in a much more favorable position compared to previous elections. Sarma projected that the NDA could now win up to 103 seats out of the 126-member assembly. This is a notable increase from the alliance's earlier expectation of securing around 90 seats before the constituency boundaries were redrawn.
The delimitation process, finalized in 2023 using data from the 2001 census, has fundamentally altered Assam's political geography. While the total number of assembly seats remains unchanged, the exercise involved reshaping constituencies, altering reserved categories, and renaming as many as 19 seats. The 2026 polls will be the first major electoral test following this extensive revision of electoral boundaries.
Analysts Point to Shift in Voter Influence
Political observers have noted a crucial outcome of the delimitation process. They indicate that the influence of minority voters, which was often a decisive factor in numerous constituencies, has been reduced in several key areas. According to one analyst, Muslim voters will no longer be a determining factor in approximately 12 to 13 seats spread across lower, central, and southern Assam districts when compared to the 2021 assembly election results.
This demographic rebalancing is seen as a primary reason behind the ruling alliance's increased confidence. CM Sarma elaborated on the numbers, stating, "I will not predict any specific number. But we have winning prospects in 103 assembly seats this time. Previously, the winning possibility was in 90 seats, but after delimitation this possibility went up in 13 to 15 more seats."
Confident Contests and Symbolic Battles
The Chief Minister outlined a clear strategy based on this new assessment. He declared that in these 103 identified seats, the BJP or its NDA partners would contest with full force and confidence. Conversely, he admitted that in the remaining roughly 22 constituencies, the alliance's chances of victory are slim. In these seats, NDA candidates are likely to participate only in a "symbolic contest."
Emphasizing the ultimate power of the electorate, Sarma added, "Of the 103, people can reward us with 100 out of 100, 90 out of 100, or 80 out of 100. How many seats people will give, they will decide." He also indicated that the BJP would field new candidates in the constituencies that have been renamed as part of the delimitation process.
This bold forecast from the state's top leader sets the stage for a highly charged political atmosphere in Assam as parties begin their preparations for the crucial 2026 assembly elections, which will serve as a referendum on both governance and the impact of the redrawn political map.
