Pakistan's T20 World Cup Qualification Hangs in Balance Against USA
The possibility of Pakistan losing to the USA in today's T20 World Cup match might seem improbable, but history offers a stark reminder. In the 2024 tournament opener, Pakistan suffered a shocking defeat to the USA, severely damaging their path to the Super 8s. This loss, compounded by a subsequent defeat to India, left Pakistan needing to win both remaining group matches against Canada and Ireland to accumulate 4 points.
The 2024 Qualification Scenario and Rain's Role
Pakistan's hopes in 2024 also hinged on the USA losing its final two games. If both teams had finished level on points, the Net Run Rate (NRR) would have determined progression. Pakistan's victory over Canada briefly improved their NRR margin, keeping the race alive. However, the USA already had 4 points and required only one more from their match against Ireland.
Rain intervened decisively, leading to the abandonment of the USA-Ireland game. This awarded the USA a shared point, lifting them to 5 points and mathematically eliminating Pakistan, regardless of any later outcomes.
Current Tournament Dynamics and Roster Strategy
Interestingly, Pakistan is fielding a similar roster this time, starting with the USA and then facing India. Pakistan's chances of qualifying for the Super 8s would have been severely jeopardized again after a loss to the USA if they had maintained a boycott against India. However, the Pakistan government has officially withdrawn this boycott.
Without a forfeit, Pakistan retains control over its points and NRR. Yet, the road to qualification remains narrow. If Pakistan loses to the USA today, they will have only 2 points from 2 matches. In that scenario, victories against both India and Namibia would likely be required to reach 6 points and stay in contention.
Defeat against India after a loss to the USA would cap Pakistan's total at 4 points. It is rare to secure a top 2 finish with 4 points in a 5-team group. The NRR could also become decisive if Pakistan, the USA, and the Netherlands end level on points overall.
IND vs PAK: A Must-Win Challenge for Pakistan
If Pakistan loses today, the IND vs PAK match on 15 February becomes a must-win game. However, given Pakistan's history in T20 cricket against India, defeating the Men in Blue seems exceptional. India and Pakistan have played 16 T20 matches so far, with India winning 13 and Pakistan emerging victorious in just 3.
Pakistan's record in ICC World Cups is even more disheartening. Out of 16 World Cup encounters, Pakistan have won just 1. A slight encouragement is that this sole victory against India came in a T20 World Cup. On 24 October 2021, Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan broke India's whitewash record in ICC World Cups with a 10-wicket win against the Men in Blue, led by Virat Kohli.
India's Recent Dominance in T20 Encounters
Since that 2021 victory, India has played against Pakistan 5 times in T20 matches and won all of them. The run started one year after India's loss, on 23 October 2022, in a T20 World Cup match in Melbourne where India won by 4 wickets. Then, on 9 June 2024, the India-Pakistan match in the T20 World Cup ended in India's favor with a 6-run victory.
The dominance continued at the 2024 T20 World Cup in New York. In the 2025 Asia Cup held in Dubai, India defeated Pakistan twice in the group stage, with comfortable chases resulting in victories by 7 wickets and 6 wickets respectively. The sequence concluded in the Asia Cup final on 28 September 2025, where India completed the sweep with another controlled chase, winning by 5 wickets.
