Dehradun: Uttarakhand is expected to experience a delayed onset of the southwest monsoon this year, with weather officials predicting its arrival by the end of June—approximately 7 to 10 days after the normal date of June 20. This delay could extend heat and humidity across northern India and adversely impact agriculture, water availability, and sowing schedules that depend on timely rainfall.
Monsoon Progress Slows
C S Tomar, director of the Regional Meteorological Centre in Dehradun, stated that the monsoon's advance has slowed in recent days. “Based on current conditions, we expect the monsoon to reach the state by the end of June,” he told TOI. The slowdown is anticipated to affect Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.
IMD Onset Criteria
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declares the onset of the monsoon when it reaches Kerala, typically the first state to receive southwest monsoon rains. This year, the monsoon reached Kerala three days after its normal onset date of June 1. The northern limit of the monsoon currently passes through parts of peninsular and eastern India, with conditions favorable for its advance into Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh over the next few days. However, it has yet to make a significant move towards north India.
El Nino Connection
Weather experts attribute the slowdown to El Nino, a climatic pattern involving the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino is often linked to weaker monsoon circulation and below-normal rainfall in parts of India. Forecasts from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and other agencies project a hotter and drier-than-normal monsoon across much of South Asia this year.
