India is witnessing a remarkable slowdown in the growth of its carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, with projections indicating just a 1.4% increase in 2025 compared to the 4% growth recorded in the previous year, according to the latest Global Carbon Budget study.
Significant Slowdown in Emissions Growth
The annual study conducted by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) reveals that India's fossil fuel-related emissions are estimated to reach 3.22 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent this year, up marginally from 3.19 billion tonnes recorded in 2024. This represents one of the most substantial slowdowns in emissions growth in recent years.
Interestingly, India's emissions growth rate of 1.4% is even lower than that of the United States, which is expected to see a 1.9% increase in emissions, potentially influenced by the climate policies of the Donald Trump administration.
Factors Behind the Emissions Slowdown
Researchers attribute this positive development to multiple factors working in tandem. "An early monsoon reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months," stated the study, explaining how favorable weather conditions played a crucial role. "Combined with strong growth in renewables, this led to very low growth in coal consumption."
The analysis highlights how India's accelerating renewable energy capacity combined with reduced electricity demand during the monsoon season created the perfect conditions for emissions control. The monsoon not only decreased the need for air conditioning but also reduced irrigation demands, creating a dual benefit for emissions reduction.
Long-term Trend and Global Context
The slowdown in emissions growth isn't just a one-year phenomenon. The GCP study reveals that India's average annual emissions growth has decreased to 3.6% in the current decade (2015-2024) compared to 6.4% during the 2005-2014 period.
This deceleration reflects both the expanding base effect as emissions volumes grow larger, and continuous improvements in the carbon intensity of India's economy, indicating that economic growth is becoming less dependent on carbon emissions.
Globally, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise by approximately 1.1% to reach a record 38.1 billion tonnes this year, underscoring the challenge facing international climate efforts. However, the study notes that CO2 emissions from land-use changes are expected to decline, helping keep overall CO2 emissions relatively stable at around 42 billion tonnes compared to last year.
Supporting Evidence and Methodology
The GCP findings are supported by separate research conducted months earlier. An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief revealed that CO2 emissions from India's electricity sector declined in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year - marking the first such decrease.
The Global Carbon Project is an international collaborative program that meticulously tracks global carbon cycles and emissions. Their annual Global Carbon Budget study, published in the prestigious Nature journal, is timed to coincide with major climate conferences, with the current edition released during COP30 in Brazil.
It's important to note that these figures represent scientific estimates rather than official government data. Official emission numbers require rigorous sectoral data collection that typically takes several years to compile and verify.
Fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions encompass a broad range of sectors including electricity generation, transportation, industrial processes, buildings, and heating. These account for approximately 90% of all global CO2 emissions, with the remaining 10% primarily coming from land-use changes like deforestation and ecosystem degradation.
Carbon dioxide emissions constitute about 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with other significant contributors including methane, nitrous oxide, and various fluorinated compounds.
