June 2026 Rainfall Projected Among Lowest in Over a Century
India is on track to experience its third worst June rainfall in 126 years, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Since 1901, only four years have recorded June rainfall below 100 mm, with 2009 being the driest at 87.5 mm. The current year's deficit places it among the most severe shortfalls in recorded history.
Historical Context and Comparison
The IMD's records show that the worst June rainfall occurred in 2009, when the country received just 87.5 mm. Other years with critically low June rainfall include 1928 (89.2 mm), 1905 (93.7 mm), and 2014 (98.6 mm). The current year's provisional figure of around 92 mm would rank third lowest, surpassing only 2009 and 1928. This analysis is based on data compiled by meteorologist Kalyan Ray.
Impact on Monsoon and Agriculture
The deficient June rainfall has raised concerns about the overall monsoon performance, as June is a critical month for sowing of kharif crops. The IMD had earlier predicted a normal monsoon, but the delay in onset and weak rainfall in several regions have affected agricultural activities. Farmers in parts of central and western India have reported delayed planting of cotton, soybean, and pulses.
Regional Variations and Heatwave Conditions
While some regions experienced near-normal rainfall, others faced severe deficits. Northwest India, including states like Rajasthan and Punjab, recorded rainfall 30-40% below normal. In contrast, parts of southern India received excess precipitation. The weak monsoon activity also coincided with a prolonged heatwave in several northern states, with temperatures exceeding 45°C in some areas.
Forecast and Outlook
The IMD has indicated that monsoon activity is likely to pick up in July, which could help compensate for the June deficit. However, the initial shortfall may still impact water reservoirs and agricultural output. The government is monitoring the situation and has advised states to prepare for potential drought-like conditions in vulnerable districts.
