Northwest India is enduring one of its most severe heatwaves in a century, with Chandigarh recording a 71.6% rainfall deficit, daytime temperatures soaring to 45.7°C, and nighttime lows remaining above 30°C, offering no relief. The southwest monsoon, which typically reaches Chandigarh by June 26, is running five to eight days behind schedule, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared heatwave conditions across Chandigarh, Punjab, and Haryana for multiple days.
Record Heat and Uncomfortable Nights
On Sunday, Chandigarh recorded a minimum temperature of 30.3°C, which is 3.7°C above normal, while Amritsar registered 30.5°C, Patiala 30.9°C, and Faridkot 31.2°C. In Haryana, Faridabad recorded 32°C and Ambala 30.8°C. Average minimum temperatures across Punjab were 3.9°C above normal, and Haryana saw departures of 3.6°C. Only foothill stations like Thein Dam and Pathankot experienced relatively cooler nights at 26.1°C.
The IMD defines a heatwave when a plains station's maximum temperature reaches at least 40°C and departs from normal by 4.5°C or more, or when the actual maximum crosses 45°C regardless of departure. On Sunday, Faridkot recorded 45.7°C and Bhiwani 45°C, both crossing the absolute threshold. Chandigarh's maximum of 41°C was 4.7°C above normal, placing it in formal heatwave territory. Ambala was 5.1°C above normal at 41.6°C.
Why the Monsoon Is Delayed
The heatwave and monsoon delay are linked. Five factors have converged: developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which historically correlate with weaker monsoons; repeated western disturbances that suppressed monsoon convection; a feeble Somali Jet reducing moisture transport; weak Madden-Julian Oscillation activity; and an absence of Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems. These factors created a heat dome over northwest India, with no rain or cloud cover, causing temperatures to surge 4-5°C above normal.
Impact on People and Agriculture
Tens of lakhs of residents across Chandigarh, Mohali, Panchkula, Ludhiana, Amritsar, Ambala, Rohtak, Hisar, and dozens of smaller towns are affected. Daily wage labourers, construction workers, street vendors, rickshaw pullers, and agricultural workers are most exposed. The elderly and children face heightened risks. Power demand has surged, leading to load management disruptions and voltage fluctuations. Farmers are caught in a slow-motion agricultural crisis: paddy transplantation is proceeding under intensive groundwater extraction, with groundwater tables declining at approximately 29 mm per year.
Rain Deficit Numbers
As of Monday morning, Chandigarh's cumulative seasonal rainfall from June 1 stood at 40.1 mm, a deficit of 71.6% against the long-period seasonal average. Punjab's seasonal deficit stands at around 25% and Haryana's at approximately 16%. June deficits are particularly significant because the month is when the monsoon establishes its foothold, builds soil moisture, and fills reservoirs. Under El Niño conditions, which historically suppress July and August rainfall, recovery is uncertain.
Forecast and Relief Ahead
Monday and Tuesday will be the last of the severe heat, with Chandigarh's maximum projected at 41°C and 40°C, minimums at 28-29°C. Wednesday marks the transition with thunderstorms and gusty winds. Thursday and Friday bring heavy rain with thunderstorms and lightning, signalling monsoon onset conditions. From the week of July 2-8, IMD's extended range forecast projects favourable conditions for the southwest monsoon to advance into parts of Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi.
IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has noted that excess moisture has been accumulating in the monsoon system since 2000, causing rainfall somewhere, but often not where needed. The 71.6% rainfall shortfall in Chandigarh will not be erased by a week of good rain, and groundwater recharge deficits will persist.
